The accuracy of the new product plan is low, accompanied by more demand history, it is necessary to roll up and update in time, and at the same time balance inventory risks, out stock risks and operating costs.

After the product design is set, the inventory risk is mainly from two aspects. First, the earlier prediction made, the more imperfect the information is, the lower the accuracy of the prediction, and the higher the corresponding inventory risk. Second, the quality risk of production technology. Although the product design has been set and the production process has also undergone preliminary verification, from a small number of verification to a large number of production, the change is still quite large, bringing corresponding risks. For example, during the small batch verification period, the main process is handmade; in large quantities, the mold has been developed, and the mold itself has not been fully verified. The more production, the higher the risk of inventory.

In order to avoid such risks, some companies have delayed more orders, such as R & D personnel stipulated that the second batch of production cannot be produced before the first batch of products came out. This controls the risk of inventory to a certain extent, but may increase the risk of out -of -stock and operating costs.

During the introduction stage of new products, the risk of shortage is mainly reflected in two aspects. First, the replenishment was not timely. During the new promotional period, customers’ orders were received, but then it could not be supplied. Because of this, it had to extend the promotion period and cause revenue loss. Second, the replenishment is not timely and uneven. Although the overall demand is matched with the supply, the inventory is not evenly distributed in the various nodes of the supply chain. Soon after the product is transferred to the normal sales, a staged shortage occurs and affects the business.

The operating cost is either too many orders or too few orders. Too many orders means that small and frequent underground orders will reduce the scale effect and increase the operating cost for supply chain. The order is too small, which means that once the order is placed, the batch is quite large. The scale benefits are available, but it is easy to cause idleness when you are idle. When you are busy, you are busy rushing to work and increase your operating costs.

The rolling plan of the new product is to balance the above three based on the accuracy of prediction and the execution ability of the supply chain.

To put it simply, the sooner the new product is introduced, the sooner the prediction and enrollment are entered. The smaller the risk of the shortage, the earlier the prediction, the lower the accuracy, the higher the inventory risk; The smaller the risk, the greater the risk of shortage. We have to balance the timeliness and accuracy of the prediction. Specifically, how long does it take to start entering the follow -up needs after the new product listing is verified?

Another example is the adjustment frequency and adjustment amplitude of the predicted. The higher the predicted adjustment frequency, the smaller the predicted adjustment, and the more frequent the order you see, the smaller the order amount, the smaller the scale benefits; the more the forecast adjustment will not be Frequent, the greater the adjustment, the greater the scale of the supply chain, but it will face the problem of uneven production capacity arrangements. Update prediction every day means that you may place an order to the supply chain every day, which is obviously too frequent; the monthly update prediction, the next month for one month, the next month of the next month, it looks a bit too frequent. The folding point here is also considered by the new product scroll frequency.